Putin's Looming Big Offensive
Col Mike Walker, USMC (ret)
All,
Putin is now preparing for what he sees as the decisive offensive -- and he may be right but for the wrong reasons.
The clock is ticking. It is probably not more than a week or two weeks away.
The window of time we have to get vital military aid into Ukraine is rapidly closing.
The time to act is now as every minute counts!
A. Here are a some unknowns we need to be alert to:
Will China covertly supply critically needed military arms and supplies?
While troops will come from Belarus and Syria, is it possible Iran will also covertly send in troops masquerading as part of the Syrian mercenary contingent?
Will Putin use chemical or biological weapons against the Ukrainians?
B. Here is how Putin thinks the offensive will play out:
a. Throughout, Putin will deliberately target the Ukrainian people through air bombardment, missiles, and other indirect fire weapon systems.
b. The Belarus Army (with additional Russian forces) will strike in Ukraine's far northwest and drive south in an effort to cut Lviv and the western border area off from the rest of Ukraine.
c. When the Pacific Fleet squadrons arrive in the Black Sea, they will join the forces there to launch a concerted drive on Odessa.
d. Finally, the First Guards Tank Army arriving from Moscow will spearhead an all out drive to take Kyiv.
C. In Putin's mind, this will achieve four strategic objectives:
(1) The attacks on civilians either will annihilate or break the will of the Ukrainian people. Putin does not care which becomes the final solution.
(2) With the attack from Belarus, Ukraine will be cut off from Western military supplies leaving the Ukrainian Army to starve to death and face ultimate defeat.
(3) In the south, Putin will control the Black Sea coast of Ukraine making the country landlocked. That will forever cripple Ukraine economically and internationally as an independent nation.
(4) The capture of Ukraine's capital will be both a powerfully symbolic and psychological victory that will break Ukraine's will and legitimize the fascist regime Putin will install in Kyiv.
In combination, Putin will see this as a decisive victory that will allow him to dictate terms in the current ongoing negotiations.
The war will be over ending in a great Russian triumph -- or so Putin thinks.
D. None of this is Foreordained.
The deliberate targeting of civilians is a suicide pill for Russia -- in the aftermath, no nation will be able to strongly support Russia as long as Putin is in power.
The Russian supply line is fragile and running empty. Putin cannot sustain a new 5 to 6 week-long offensive.
The First Guards Tanks Army is formidable but shares the same weaknesses of the Russian Army in general. It is vulnerable and open to possible defeat.
If Kyiv holds then Putin's offensive will have suffered a crippling defeat.
The Belarus Army (even with Russian back-up) is not prepared to conduct a major offensive in western Ukraine that requires it to defeat Ukrainian forces over a stretch of several hundred mile.
That offensive thrust is highly likely to fail.
The Black Sea drive also is not a sure bet. The Pacific Fleet squadrons only marginally add to the balance of forces. If the Russians cannot quickly take Odessa then they are in real trouble.
Making things potentially impossible in the south, taking and most importantly holding the entire Black Sea coast is a very long shot.
And Putin's troops again will suffer heavy casualties. This time Putin will not be able to hide them.
In Belarus, heavy battle casualties might very well lead to an internal uprising. The days of the self-proclaimed "Last Dictator in Europe" may be numbered.
Similarly, the families and friends of the First Guards Tanks Army soldiers are almost entirely from the Moscow area. Even Putin's secret services will not be able to keep those casualties under wraps.
That will build up internal opposition to Putin to an unprecedented degree.
Finally, Ukraine does not have to win everywhere but the Russian Army does.
And it is likely that Ukraine will win on one or more fronts and it is in the realm of possibility that Ukraine will withstand all of Putin's offensive thrusts.
It seems likely that Putin's Russia will be fatally damaged and on an inevitable road to internal collapse.
