Explaining Foquismo in Iran
Mike Walker, Col USMC (ret)
All,
Thought it might be wise to explain how a “foquismo” uprising could occur in Iran.
Three (3) steps are required:
1. A population ripe to overthrow the government.
2. An identified alternative leadership (such as a government in exile).
3. Cracks in the military/security forces i.e. they will not obey orders to kill the people protesting to overthrow the government.
In Iran today, the first requirement has been obtained.
The second has not. That needs to happen immediately.
To put it perhaps too simplistically, Iran's organized resistance falls into two camps: (a) NCRI supporters and sympathizers and (b) Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi supporters and sympathizers.
If these two factions rapidly can form a transitional government in exile that promises a quick transition to democracy in a post-Ayatollah Iran then that could fulfill the second requirement.
That leaves the third step: Cracking the military/security forces.
For that to happen in Iran, requirements 1 and 2 need to be in place to create the resistance's political focal point (hence the name “foco” or “foquismo).
Once the resistance focal point is established then the tipping point is within reach and big things can happen very quickly.
There already are signs of military cracks but without the political focal point, a foquismo uprising may remain elusive.
