Understanding Iran
Mike Walker, Col USMC, retired
All,
Fundamentals in understanding the Islamic Republic of Iran:
(1) Iran is a revolutionary state.
It will remain so until the generation that participated in the revolution pass away, in other words, not for decades...
...or if they fall from power, a highly unlikely outcome since the Green Movement was crushed in 2009.
(2) Iran is a theocracy with everything that implies.
Its theocratic underpinning imbues the Iranian regime with the immensely strong (and dangerous) conviction that they are doing Allah's will.
That is why the mullahs call the United States "the Great Satan."
(3) Taken together that means several important things:
The Islamic Republic wants no part of the current world order.
Its goal remains revolutionary: To destroy the current world order...
... and that means from its first day of existence the United States has been its intractable enemy -- like it or not.
The mullahs do everything in their power to bring the war to America and act against America's interests globally.
The Islamic Republic will never cease the aggressive and often violent exportation of its revolution.
It will not stop its militant and violent acts in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen and everywhere in the world where it can gain a foothold.
(4) Iran sees itself at war and is desperate not to lose. Most of the world does not recognize this reality.
That means US military strikes on the Iranian homeland will be hard to contain. Iran likely will see it as the opening of a broader war.
(5) Iran traditionally sees itself as an immensely powerful nation -- far beyond any reasoned measure.
Iranian history is replete with examples of overreach based on false assumptions of strength.
The penchant of its leaders for disastrous miscalculation is stunning.
It will be the mullahs last mistake. If the United States is sufficiently provoked then it will crush the rulers of the Islamic Republic.
Tragically, the cost for everyone -- especially Iran -- will far exceed the expectations.
