The Situation in Syria
Col Mike Walker, USMC (retired)
All,
Few realize just how fragile Assad’s rule over Syria is today. Many felt his victory at Aleppo in December 2016 meant that the end of the war was in sight – that Assad was finally and firmly on the road to victory. But that victory, when analyzed closely, displays the full weakness of Assad and the reason is simple:
Assad did not win the battle of Aleppo.
The battle for Aleppo was decided by the fighting of Hezbollah, the military infrastructure provided by Iran and Russia's logistical support and airpower. Take those three factors out of the equation and Assad would have lost the battle and that explains why he cannot win the war.
Assad no longer has sufficient security forces to both defeat his enemies and occupy the majority of the country that remains deeply hostile to rule.
That presents his allies with a deep quandary: Is the bulk of Hezbollah's fighters along with thousands of revolutionary guards from Iran's Quds Force to remain in Syria indefinitely in order to keep Assad in power?
They know better than anyone that even if they “win” in a conventional sense, the Assad regime will collapse as soon as the military forces of Russia, Hezbollah and Iran withdraw.
The West and other powers in the region may be rightly criticized for having no clear vision over how to proceed in Syria but the other side (Assad, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia) is stuck on the horns of an irresolvable dilemma.
After over 400,000 Syrians have been killed, over a million more wounded and six million turned into refugees, the civil war rages on.
To help understand how this came to pass a short timeline is provided.
The Syrian War Timeline
- Spring-summer 2011, peaceful protests bring Assad’s regime to the brink of collapse. Iran, Russia and Hezbollah pledge to support Assad.
- August 2011, Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) forms the al Nusra Front in Syria.
- Early 2012, Assad orders in the army and air force to crush the opposition. Civil war ensues.
- July 2012, al Nusra seizes border crossings with Iraq. Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds Force send military advisors to Assad.
- September 2012, Assad’s troops shell the Kurdish Quarter in Aleppo. Syrian Kurds enter the war against Assad.
- January 2013, Assad regime again teeters on the edge of collapse.
- 6 March 2013, Raqqa falls into rebel hands with help from al Nusra Front.
- April 2013, al Baghdadi breaks from al Nusra and forms the Islamic State (IS). Hezbollah sends in 4,000 fighters from Lebanon to bolster Assad.
- September 2013, Western-backed Syrian opposition engages in heavy fighting with the Islamic State – a three-way civil war begins.
- January 2014, Raqqa declared the capital of the Islamic State’s caliphate.
- Spring-summer 2014, IS launches major offensives in Syria and Iraq. In northern Iraq, only the Iraqi Kurds hold firm against the IS invasion.
- Throughout 2015, IS expands internationally (like al Qaeda in 1998).
- Summer 2015, Assad again is on the ropes, looks likely to fall from power.
- July 2015, Iran nuclear deal reached. Quds Force head Qasim Solemani heads to Moscow with a plan to save Assad that requires Russian intervention (Assad is not invited to the talks).
- August-September 2015, Assad continues to lose ground.
- 30 September 2015, Russia enters the war.
- October 2015, thousands of Quds Force reinforcements begin to arrive in Syria.
- 16 January 2016, Iran sanctions lifted. Cash flows into Iran and funds supporting Quds Force operations in Syria increase accordingly.
- 15 March 2016, Russia announces it will withdraw from Syria but the Assad regime is too weak to allow it.
- May 2016, Syrian Kurdish forces begin attack on Raqqa but fail to take the city.
- 25 June 2016, Syrian army along with Iranian and Hezbollah forces begin offensive against Aleppo (then Syria’s largest city and rebel stronghold).
- July 2016, last rebel supply route into Aleppo shut down by Assad and his allies.
- September 2016, rebels lose control over western Aleppo.
- October 2016, final rebel counteroffensive to break the siege of Aleppo fails.
- November 2016, Syrian Kurds launch second attack on Raqqa. After minor gains, the attack halts.
- 22 December 2016, Aleppo falls to Assad and his allies.
- 14 February 2017, Iran’s Quds Force commander Qasim Solemani makes another trip to Moscow to plan out the next phase of the war.
- 9 March 2017, US Marines with heavy artillery arrive at the Raqqa battlefield to assist US Special Forces and the Syrian Kurds.
- 4 April 2017, Assad drops air-delivered sarin gas munitions on Idlib province (SW of Aleppo). All the casualties are civilians, including dozens of children.
- 6 April 2017, the United States strikes the airfield used to launch the chemical attack.
