Middle East "I Told You So"
Col Mike Walker, USMC (retired)
All,
The below was written on 13 September 2012 (nearly four years ago) at the request of my Marine friend Buddy Sklar.
See how much has come to pass:
Why Syria Matters
The bloodshed continues unabated in Syria. The outcome of what has devolved into a brutal civil war is of critical importance to the United States and its allies. Regrettably, “leading from behind” has left us in a poor position, largely that of a spectator, while our regional enemy, Iran, has become a major actor in Syria. If Bashar Assad prevails, the outcome can only be characterized as a disaster with Iran as a winner. The mistake made by many is misunderstanding the aims of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran’s rulers are revolutionaries. They do not seek accommodation or a “seat at the table” as an equal amongst nations. They seek to smash the table. They are not interested in taking an elevated place within the community of nations, but in destroying the current international order and interrelationships. That is why many who hope for a peaceful and progressive Iran were dismayed by the muddled actions in Washington during the Green Movement’s 2009 non-violent demonstrations. It was a bitter introduction to “leading from behind.”
The Iranian strategy is to acquire nuclear weapons while forming a contiguous Shi’a bloc composed of a radicalized Iraq, a Hezbollah-led Lebanon and a subservient Syria. They believe the bloc could then wage a war of annihilation against Israel, the long-professed goal of the radical Mullahs. The extremists hope Israel’s destruction will provide the religious credibility for a return to a Shi’a-led caliphate and justify a war against Saudi Arabia over control of the holy sites at Mecca and Medina. There is a counter to this strategy: Help the Syrian freedom fighters achieve victory.
The UN Security Council is of no use. The Russians are clinging to Syria, their last Middle East toehold, and sending a message that they will stand with their friends no matter what while China holds that states have the absolute right to use military force internally, recall the Tian’anmen Square tragedy. This is where “leading from behind” has hurt us badly. The opportunity to prevent the violence from escalating into a civil war was squandered. The leaders who will govern Syria in the future are fighting on the battlefield today. By our inaction, we diminished our influence with those leaders. The Alawis, Christians and other minorities support Assad because they fear a return to the deadly Sunni persecutions of the past. What the final outcome will be is unknown, as the motivations of the various fighter groups such as the Free Syrian Army, Syrian Rebel Front and al Nusra Front are varied and often contradictory. What is known is that we lost the chance to support early on those who see us as friends and to limit the power of those who are our enemies; that mistake was not repeated by Russia, Iran and al Qaeda.
