Thoughts on Ukraine
Mike Walker, Col. USMC (retired)
All,
Many in Western Europe and the United States who never listened to the realists have been caught flat-footed over Putin's aggression against Ukraine. Eastern Europe is a different story. Expect a build up of military muscle in Poland and elsewhere.
The old saying goes that you cannot have a first rate military without a first rate enemy. Putin just created that enemy.
The question is: Where will Putin draw the line?
The Crimea has never been a historic region of Ukraine. In fact, it was never part of Ukraine until the 1960s. After the breakup in 1991, it was very awkward to have major Russian naval bases and it largest fleet in another country. That was a problem from the start.
If Putin stops with the Crimea, holds a relatively free and fair referendum for union with Russia, they will likely vote to join.
Then we will be in a pickle if we oppose the transfer.
But what if the Crimea is not enough?
If Putin goes into eastern Ukraine, it will be a big problem.
Even though there are millions of ethnic Russians and millions more of Russian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians (which side they will pick is up in the air), that still leaves millions of Ukrainians, so will they start a bloody insurgency? Will we see the most massive wave of displaced refugees since 1945? That would be a humanitarian disaster of untold proportions.
If he goes for the whole enchilada, conquering all of Ukraine, he will be in deep s---.
The Russian Army has about 160,000 troops available. Ukraine has maybe 45,000 troops, 25,000 border guards, and 20,000 interior ministry paramilitary troops. Add in the reserves and the Russian Army could have a real fight on its hands.
But let us assume the talking heads are right and the Russian Army wins quickly, it will still be very bloody and now what?
The place is too big.
The entire Russian Army could not garrison a hostile Ukraine and it would be bled dry in a never-ending guerrilla war. Further, that war would not stop at the Ukrainian border.
The guerrillas will necessarily take their terror campaign into Russia proper. What if they ally themselves with other ethnic separatists to include radical Islamists fighting the Russians now? It could turn into the bloodiest mess for Russia since the Nazi invasion.
It would only be a matter of time before the Russians realized that holding a hostile Ukraine exceeded the cost in blood and treasure that they would be willing to pay.
Mike
