Sobering thoughts of what could be... from Mike Walker. This is like a train wreck... every event is obvious, predictable...
The Really Bad Scenario: Israeli-Iranian Nuclear War
I should not read certain articles in the Atlantic but can’t help myself so these dark musings are a consequence of that folly. Nuclear warfareis the ultimate "dismal science.” I never had the stomach for it so it was the Marine Corps (not USAF SAC) for me. But here goes anyway.
Post-Shah Iranian leaders have long professed that their strategic goal is to destroy Israel and Jews in general as they see them as a disease that plagues humanity. You can't make this stuff up. This a return to the darkest days of Naziism. Contrary to some conventional wisdom, the Nazis held that Arabs were Semites thus only one cut above the Jews. The Iranians, on the other hand, were an Aryan people and therefore had much to be admired.
By the late 1930's Nazi Germany was one of Iran's closest international friends and trading partners. Since then there has always been a small Iranian elite who have reciprocated that feeling of admiration for Hitler and the Nazi movement. Today's rulers in Tehran share that perverse ideological legacy.
Iran's leaders are giving us a replay of the famous Hitler-Stalin comparison: Both killed millions upon millions of innocent people but Stalin lied about everything and everyone believed him while Hitler told everyone the truth and no one believed him. The Iranian leadership is telling everyone the truth about their ultimate aims but no one believes them. As a result they will get nuclear weapons and they will use them to try to wipe Israel off the map, their words.
So how will it play out after Iran has nuclear weapons?
Either Israel will launch a much-too-late preemptive conventional attack to eliminate Iran's nuclear strike capability and will have to weather the counterstrike with what remains in Iran’s arsenal or they will feel the full force of a first strike. In either case, Israel will be able to launch a nuclear counterstrike against Iran no matter the effectiveness of a nuclear attack ordered by the Mullahs in Tehran. This is based on three factors.
First, how many weapons can Iran launch? Will they be enough to take out both Israeli civilian centers as well as hardened military targets? The answer to latter queston will likely be no.
Second, will Israeli defenses knock out a significant portion of the incoming missiles and/or aircraft? Israel has the most modern version of the Patriot missiles which do well against MRBM's. If a missile were intercepted then there would still be a lethal pile of burning radioactive junk landing somewhere but a nuclear detonation would be avoided.
Third, it is believed that Israel has nuclear-armed cruise missiles on board its submarine fleet including submarines on station in or near thePersian Gulf. They also have strip-alert nuclear-armed aircraft. When Iran goes nuclear Israel may go to airborne nuclear-armed aircraft on station like the United States did during the height of the Cold War.
These factors ensure that Israel will be able to launch a nuclear counterstrike against Iran and that means the two countries are back to Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) with the distinction that one side’s leaders (the radicals in Tehran) may view this as an acceptable course of action.
Iran's goal will be to kill off several million Israeli civilians. At that point Israel will be in an existential war of annihilation that Iran hopes to win by sheer numbers. However, the majority of Iran's population lives in about 14 urban centers. Israel has the capacity to destroy all of them. Iran would cease to exist as a cohesive nation within hours. It is also safe to assume that the United States would launch a conventional attack against Iran’s military to eliminate whatever war-making capacity that remains.
The next question is what will possible regional supporters of Tehran's Mullahs do?
If Hezbollah attacks Israel after an Iranian nuclear strike in order to finish Israel off then the only viable option for Israel would be a nuclear strike against the pro-Hezbollah Shi'a populations in Lebanon. These won’t be the tit-for-tat conventional attacks as in 2006. After a million or more of your civilian population has been killed or are dying there is no such thing as a non-combatant, there is only survival. By day's end, the Shi’a will be reduced to an ineffective rump minority in Lebanon. This could be a similar outcome for Gaza where two nuclear weapons would decimate the population if Hamas or some of the more radical splinter groups were to attack Israel in support of Iran.
The problem is that all this could happen within a day or two. Once begun it would be impossible to stop until the nuclear arsenals were depleted. And we should expect these bombs to be dirty. Millions of men, women, and children, (overwhelming innocent victims) would be dead or dying. Some serious folks in Iran need to dust off all those medical studies related to Hiroshima and read them carefully.
Who would be the big losers?
Iran
Israel
Any regional power/group that joined in with Iran
The World, especially those in the path of the atomic fallout
The United Nations. An outbreak of a nuclear war will do to the UN what WWII did to the League of Nations
The United States
The global economy
Everyone who was making a buck off Iran and buying their oil
Who would be winners?
The Arabs, if they play their cards right (and the wind blows the right way). If they side with Iran then they will be big losers as well afterMecca and Medina are vaporized to include the Kaaba and the Grand Mosque. The Dome of the Rock (w/rock) in Jerusalem will similarly be relegated to memory. Islam would never be the same.
Al Qaeda? It could certainly be a big boost to al Qaeda and its followers (if the Arab States stay out of it). The war would be seen as the hand of God who smote down the hated Zionists and the apostate Shi'a theocracy in one fell swoop. There could be no greater proof to demonstrate that God is on the side of al Qaeda and against their enemies. As they defeated the godless Soviet Russian superpower and now have lived to see both Israel and Iran laid waste, how much longer before God strikes down the United States?
Tragically, this will not be a replay of the Cold War. This is a likely outcome of a nuclear armed Iran.
This could be our future.
But think happy thoughts.
