What's next from Russia, Ukraine and the new Cold War?
Putin's land grab in Ukraine is a grim reminder of a new world order under Biden's watch
Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis, (ret.), Foxnews
"This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine," President Biden said on Tuesday in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's recognition of Ukraine’s two breakaway regions. Putin’s decision was quickly followed by the movement of thousands of Russian troops to the region to enforce that land grab, a sobering reminder of the emergent new world order.
Moscow’s invasion of eastern Ukraine is déjà vu 2008 with the Republic of Georgia [seizure of Abkhazia and South Ossetia] and Ukraine in 2014 [annexation of Crimea], and if I were in the Baltics [Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania] and the balance of Ukraine, or perhaps even Poland, I’d watch carefully movements to my east. Putin is poised to push west against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to recover lost ground which he considers part of the historic Russian Empire.
Putin’s aggression should alarm westerners who naively cling to NATO’s prowess. Years ago, during the Cold War (1948-1991), the West was much stronger and more able to stand up against Soviet aggression but not so much now. I doubt anyone who truly understands NATO’s capabilities believes the alliance can really defeat the Russian army. The numbers just aren’t there anymore.
Meanwhile, Putin long ago planned to create the pretext to move against Ukraine’s east via misinformation about alleged atrocities. That’s been building now for weeks: hybrid warfare with psychological operations, cyberattacks, and cease-fire violations. Recently the evacuation of civilians into Russia was a clear indication Putin’s plan was falling into place. Those actions remind me of Germany in 1939 and Poland.
What now? Putin didn’t need 190,000 troops and a phalanx of tanks, thousands of artillery pieces, and a shipment of plasma to declare the eastern Ukrainian region independent. No, there is much more and this was long ago planned.
Looking into the future, expect Russia to keep large numbers of troops in Belarus, and many thousands inside eastern Ukraine. Also, recall that Putin and Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko declared the formation of a reaction force, a key indicator that Russia will hold its ground. Further, expect the geopolitical temperature to rise, subject in part to NATO and the West’s response, if any.
Will the Germans really kill Nord Stream 2, the pipeline from Russia? Will Biden really pull the rug on Moscow’s access to SWIFT [Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications]? Don’t be too optimistic. After all, Italy is already waffling on Russian sanctions.
The pragmatic Germans won’t let their economy suffer from a lack of energy, even though Biden said the Nord Stream 2 will "not move forward." Alternatively, former President Trump offered to sell U.S. natural gas to the EU and Germany as a counter to Russia. That should be revived.
The White House has already started walking back from the SWIFT sanctions, commenting that Russia is only formalizing in the East what everyone has already known. After all, this might be the "minor incursion" that Biden basically allowed Putin in a January 2022 speech. Question is, did Biden secretly agree in advance to allow Putin to do this? Or are we to believe this is a coincidence?
Meanwhile, assuming Putin’s latest land grab holds, then in time – perhaps next winter – the Kremlin’s authoritarian will continue to whittle away at the fringes of Eastern Europe, the countries of the former Warsaw Pact. Expect Moldova to be next; after all, Moscow already has troops in that tiny country.
Further, the Ukraine kerfuffle will energize communist China’s President Xi Jinping to launch his campaign against Taiwan, which might not happen immediately but looks more certain thanks to Putin’s growing encroachment into Europe.
President Biden’s promised harsh sanctions won’t slow Putin, much less the slap on the hand he announced following Tuesday’s invasion. After all, these actions are already calculated into the mix, and besides, expect China to launder much of what the Russians really need to continue operations, such as purchasing any excess oil and gas that the West may sanction. Further, and this is important, read the February 4, 2022 joint communique released by thugs Putin and Xi at the launch of the 2022 Beijing Olympics. They are now more joined at the hip than ever before. And yes, we are in a new Cold War.
Perhaps this new Cold War isn’t exactly like the one that ended with the demise of the former Soviet Union in 1991. However, it is real and just as threatening. My 2018 book, "Alliance of Evil," is now proving to be absolutely correct in that China and Russia are fulfilling their intent, and that comes at the expense of freedom seeking people across the world.
What are America’s interests in the current Ukraine-related crisis? There are at least four interests.
First, as a NATO member, we are obligated under Article 5 to come to the aid if an alliance member is attacked. That could happen.
Second, Putin seeks to replace Europe’s current security infrastructure that grants Moscow more oversight. Already we’ve seen the French and German leadership caving on that front.
Third, Americans will experience not just higher energy prices but security costs will escalate due to our demonstrated weakness and NATO skepticism about our staying power.
Finally, sovereign nations across the world will make decisions where they stand based on their view of both Russia and China, the world’s rising power.
President Biden’s term in office set the stage for these radical changes and could act as an accelerant to something far worse on the horizon.
Robert Maginnis is a retired U.S. Army officer and an experienced military analyst with on-the-ground experience inside Russia and Ukraine and the author of a number of books that address the Russia and China threat, including "Give Me Liberty, Not Marxism" (2021).
