Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Charlie Rangel's Malarkey and Why Obama Care Is Failing


Musings of Mike Walker, Col. USMC (retired)
Charlie Rangel's Malarkey and Why Obama Care Is Failing

The 2010 Affordable Care Act (PPACA) or Obama Care is not even four years old and is already in serious trouble. The reason lies in understanding American history, but not the false history Charlie Rangel opined about.
 
Congressman Rangel's comment that no Republican voted for Social Security is partisan baloney (see below*).

Modern Presidents like to pass transformative legislation but it is a rare feat. The 1935 Social Security Act, 1956 Interstate Highway Act, 1964 Civil Rights Act and 1965 Medicare/Medicaid Acts all transformed America in a fundamental ways.
 
Rangel’s lie is informative, however, as it highlights the underlying failure of Obama Care.

This failure centers on two facts, the first is the one that Charlie Rangel hates and which likely forced him to resort to falsehoods:

BIPARTISAN LEGISLATION IS BETTER BECAUSE IT CREATES LAWS FOR ALL AMERICANS

As Charlie Rangel would have it, PPACA was legislation to announce the supremacy of the Democratic Party under President Obama. Its proponents exhibited a flawed groupthink that concluded what was good for the Democratic Party was good for America.
 
The Beltway pundits understood the score. Upon passage of PPACA, the Washington Post sagely proclaimed: “Democrats score historic victory.”
 
Obama Care was not legislation for America and we are all suffering now for that sin of hubris.
 
The second point of failure deals with inside-the-beltway strategy:

It is impossible to get transformative legislation right on the first try. That is why past Presidents obtained bipartisan support even if it meant painful compromises.
 
Past Presidents knew that problems would arise and a bipartisan deal guaranteed future help from both parties as BOTH had skin in the game. They had to get together to succeed.
 
If you make the legislation a purely partisan battle, it stays a partisan fight. In Washington, a zero sum game closes the door to a future “let’s fix it together” solution.
 
Obama Care focused too much on scoring a Democratic victory and a Republican defeat. Now, the tables are turned. Obama Care is struggling and the bridges to the Republicans are burned.
 
It looks like this Democratic victory might have been badly overrated.
 
But the Washington Post was right in one sense: This baby is all Democrat and is certainly historical, painfully or otherwise.
 
 
*For the record, here are the voting records for the legislation cited above:
 
(Totals may not add up because abstaining votes were not counted)
 
1935 Social Security Act
                                    Senate                          House
                           Yea            Nay            Yea            Nay
Democrats           60                1              284             15
Republicans         16                5              81              15
 
1956 Interstate Highway Act
This act was so popular on both sides of the aisle that vote in the Senate was 89-1 and in the House, 388-19. By the way, that act was the largest public works program in modern history, equal to one half trillion dollars in today's currency.
 
1964 Civil Rights Act
                                    Senate                          House
                           Yea            Nay            Yea            Nay
Democrats           46              21              152             96
Republicans         27                6              138             34
 
This was the classic example of compromising. The legislation was dead in the Senate because of both Democratic and Republican opposition. But the Republicans opposed because they did not get their key changes included. The Democratic leadership then brought in the Senate Republicans and together worked out a compromise (see link below to Senator Dirksen's speech in support of the measure). The rest was history.
 
 
1965 Medicare-Medicaid Act
                                    Senate                          House
                           Yea            Nay            Yea            Nay
Democrats           57                7              237             48
Republicans         13              17              70              68
 
Now look at 2010 PPACA:
 
                                    Senate                          House
                           Yea            Nay            Yea            Nay
Democrats           58               0              219             34
Republicans          0              39                0              178


Mike

Monday, October 28, 2013

Grand prize winner

Talented group of planners and system developers…
Documents have surfaced that counteract the President's
repeated statements that "If you like your insurance,
or your doctor you don't have to change, absolutely!"
We now know that while these speeches are being 
repeated internal sources were saying that between 47% and 70%
would lose their present insurance. Who was he talking to? Or, was
this as blatant as it seems.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Why I (sometimes) Hate Washington or The Shutdown That Never Should Have Been




Why I (sometimes) Hate Washington or The Shutdown That Never Should Have Been
Mike Walker, Col. USMC (retired)
All,

When the “Defund Obama Care” gambit dipped into failure, I was more than harsh in criticizing some of my Republican friends.

There was no serious effort to win over the needed Democratic votes in the Senate, and even if that had succeeded, there was no possibility of gaining enough votes to overturn a Presidential veto.

Worse still, the “Defund” tactic, even if it had succeeded, had no effect on most Obama Care revenue streams as they were tied to entitlements not under Congressional control. Further, Obama Care is the law of the land so every hospital, clinic, doctor’s office, and State and local health care agency has to comply with the law regardless of Congressional funding.

But after that tomfoolery, the Republicans did back down, on 30 September they removed the demand to defund Obama Care and went after a one-year delay in the individual mandate.

Now we discover that the White House and Harry Reid were playing equally reckless political games from that point on.

 And remember, 30 September was BEFORE the Government shutdown.
There was time, albeit not much, for a responsible compromise.

Well before 30 September, the White House knew that the 1 October launch of the Obama Care open enrollment period was in serious trouble. Enough for HHS Secretary Sebelius to admit three weeks later, on 20 October, that the need for a delay of as much as two years was not an exaggeration.

Given that there were more White House meetings over Obama Care than any other single issue during the this Presidency, certainly hundreds and perhaps a thousand or more, it was clearly understood that a delay was a rational course of action but politically unacceptable.

Washington DC is dysfunctional and it appears that Senator Harry Reid and President Obama are drinking the same Kool-Aid previously imbibed by Senators Ted Cruz and Mike Lee.

All the political junkies and partisan hardball players could not wait for the "Shut Down" fight but the American people did not want it.

What we have are leaders who think it is better for Republicans to score points on Democrats or Democrats to score points on Republicans than to do what is right for Americans and America.

Based on what we now know:

Republicans were foolish to try to defund Obama Care except when it came to gaining partisan political points.

Democrats were foolish not to delay the implementation of the individual mandate except when it came to gaining partisan political points.

It was dishonorable for “the powers that be” in Washington DC not to have reached a compromise before 1 October over a delay in the individual mandate.

A Pox on all their houses!

And now think about this:

The Administration deemed the launch of the individual mandate open enrollment as “A-OK” on 1 October while the business mandate was considered “too unready.”

It makes me queasy and weak in the knees when I think about how screwed up that program must be in comparison to the “everything is fine” roll out of the individual mandate.

Oh boy! Oh boy!



Mike

Monday, October 21, 2013

Obama Care Woes



This may hurt a little!


Obama Care Woes
Mike Walker, Col. USMC (retired)
All, 

Having had to work health care insurance issues with a Public School District for nine years, the problems facing ObC seem very serious.

They are not website glitches that are simply inconveniences, they appear to be deeply rooted problems now that the enrollment window is open and some hard data is leaking out.
 
A policy cannot be issued unless the application data is clean. According the Blue Cross/Blue Shield and several other major carriers, ObC has proven incapable of transferring the data for those that have been SUCCESSFUL in signing up on the exchanges. 

Remember, getting through the exchange is just one step, the carrier then has to create an individual health care insurance policy, confirm it, set up the billing, etc. 

Also note that there are NOT the required minimum of seven million completed applications awaiting processing. As of today, there may not even be 70,000 completed applications (just 1% of those needed). 
 
That spells B-I-G T-R-O-U-B-L-E as it is highly unlikely that the processing needed for seven million applications will be completed by 31 December (seventy days from now counting the Holiday Season).
 
Not sure exactly how the fines (er, ah, "taxes" according to the Supreme Court) work, but my understanding is that if you are not ID'ed via employer (which has been in place for two years) or through the new exchanges (the current point of failure) by 31 December, then you will get taxed by the IRS come April.
 
For those who tried to sign up and failed and then get wrongly taxed, it will be a bad day. The Republicans should build on the anger over the Tea Party abuses to really pour it on the IRS at that point.
 
Even before any problems surfaced, there were grave concerns. No health plan can financially survive unless the majority of the souls are healthy. Their money is pooled to cover the costs of the sick and injured.
 
For young healthy people, the tax is cheaper than the policy, so many may not sign up. Also, young people do not like giving the government personal data that is demanded by ObC and the NSA scandal exacerbated the “trust” problem. That will further reduce the number young healthy people in the pools. Finally, the website is not transparent as to the total cost which may scare away more people or make them angry at the cost.
 
The bottom line is that the pools may be too unhealthy to make it and may go broke in 2014, making everyone unhappy. DISASTER!

If the President has to issue a waiver for the individual mandate in December to avoid the disaster then WHY IN THE HELL did he and Harry Reid shut down the Government over that very issue in October?

I truly believe that most in Washington DC do not understand the real dangers and those that do are keeping their mouths shut while not sleeping well at night.
 
Mike

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

The Wannabe Oppressed



The Wannabe Oppressed

What do America’s college students want? They want to be oppressed. More precisely, a surprising number of students at America’s finest colleges and universities wish to appear as victims — to themselves, as well as to others — without the discomfort of actually experiencing victimization. Here is where global warming comes in. The secret appeal of campus climate activism lies in its ability to turn otherwise happy, healthy, and prosperous young people into an oppressed class, at least in their own imaginings. Climate activists say to the world, “I’ll save you.” Yet deep down they’re thinking, “Oppress me.”

In his important new book, The Fanaticism of the Apocalypse: Save the Earth, Punish Human Beings, French intellectual gadfly Pascal Bruckner does the most thorough job yet of explaining the climate movement as a secular religion, an odd combination of deformed Christianity and reconstructed Marxism. (You can find Bruckner’s excellent article based on the book here.) Bruckner describes a historical process wherein “the long list of emblematic victims — Jews, blacks, slaves, proletarians, colonized peoples — was replaced, little by little, with the Planet.” The planet, says Bruckner, “has become the new proletariat that must be saved from exploitation.”
But why? Bruckner finds it odd that a “mood of catastrophe” should prevail in the West, the most well-off part of the world. The reason, I think, is that the only way to turn the prosperous into victims is to threaten the very existence of a world they otherwise command.

And why should the privileged wish to become victims? To alleviate guilt and to appropriate the victim’s superior prestige. In the neo-Marxist dispensation now regnant on our college campuses, after all, the advantaged are ignorant and guilty while the oppressed are innocent and wise. The initial solution to this problem was for the privileged to identify with “struggling groups” by wearing, say, a Palestinian keffiyeh. Yet better than merely empathizing with the oppressed is to be oppressed. This is the climate movement’s signal innovation.

We can make sense of Bruckner’s progression of victimhood from successive minorities to the globe itself by considering the lives of modern-day climate activists. Let’s begin with Bill McKibben, the most influential environmental activist in the country, and leader of the campus fossil-fuel divestment movement.

In a 1996 piece titled “Job and Matthew,” McKibben describes his arrival at college in 1978 as a liberal-leaning student with a suburban Protestant background. “My leftism grew more righteous in college,” he says, “but still there was something pro forma about it.” The problem? “Being white, male, straight, and of impeccably middle-class background, I could not realistically claim to be a victim of anything.” At one point, in what he calls a “loony” attempt to claim the mantle of victimhood, McKibben nearly convinced himself that he was part Irish so he could don a black armband as Bobby Sands and fellow members of the Provisional Irish Republican Army died in a hunger strike. Yet even as he failed to persuade himself he was Irish, McKibben continued to enthusiastically support every leftist-approved victim group he could find. Nonetheless, something was missing. None of these causes seemed truly his own. When McKibben almost singlehandedly turned global warming into a public issue in 1989, his problem was solved. Now everyone could be a victim.

Wen Stephenson, a contributing writer at The Nation and an enthusiastic supporter of McKibben’s anti-fossil-fuel crusade, is one of the sharpest observers of the climate movement. In March, Stephenson published a profile of some of the student climate protesters he’d gotten to know best. Their stories look very much like McKibben’s description of his own past.

Stephenson’s thesis is that, despite vast differences between the upper-middle-class college students who make up much of today’s climate movement and southern blacks living under segregation in the 1950s, climate activists think of themselves on the model of the early civil-rights protesters. When climate activists court arrest through civil disobedience, they imagine themselves to be reliving the struggles of persecuted African Americans staging lunch-counter sit-ins at risk of their lives. Today’s climate protesters, Stephenson writes,“feel themselves oppressed by powerful, corrupt forces beyond their control.” And they fight “not only for people in faraway places but, increasingly, for themselves.”

One young activist, a sophomore at Harvard, told Stephenson that she grew up “privileged in a poor rural town.” Inspired by the civil-rights movement, her early climate activism was undertaken “in solidarity” with Third World peoples: “I saw climate change as this huge human rights abuse against people who are already disadvantaged in our global society. . . . I knew theoretically there could be impacts on the U.S. But I thought, I’m from a rich, developed country, my parents are well-off, I know I’m going to college, and it’s not going to make a difference to my life. But especially over this past year, I’ve learned that climate change is a threat to me.” When one of her fellow protesters said: “You know, I think I could die of climate change. That could be the way I go,” the thought stuck with her. “You always learn about marginalized groups in society, and think about how their voices don’t have as much power, and then suddenly you’re like, ‘Wait, that’s exactly what I am, with climate change.’”

The remaining biographical accounts in Stephenson’s piece repeat these themes. Climate activists see themselves as privileged, are deeply influenced by courses on climate change and by “marginalized” groups they’ve been exposed to in high school and college, and treat the climate apocalypse as their personal admissions pass to the sacred circle of the oppressed.

It may be that these activists, eyes opened by fortuitous education, are merely recognizing the reality of our impending doom. Or might this particular apocalypse offer unacknowledged psychic rewards? These students could easily be laid low by an economic crisis brought on by demographic decline and the strains of baby-boomer retirement on our entitlement system. Yet marriage and children aren’t a priority, although they could help solve the problem. Why? Many dooms beckon. How has climate change won out?

Last academic year, the National Association of Scholars released a widely discussed report called “What Does Bowdoin Teach? How a Contemporary Liberal Arts College Shapes Students.” The report chronicles what I’ve called a “reverse island” effect. Back in the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the classic liberal-arts curriculum first came under challenge, courses in ethnic and gender studies were like tiny islands in a sea of traditionalism. Politicized in ways that were incompatible with liberal education, these ideologically based “studies” programs were generally dismissed as necessary concessions to the nascent multicultural zeitgeist.

Today the situation is reversed. Not only have the ideologically driven “studies” programs taken over a large share of the college curriculum, but many courses in conventional departments reflect the underlying assumptions of the various minority-studies concentrations. Today, classic liberal-arts courses have themselves been turned into tiny besieged islands, while the study of alleged oppression represents the leading approach at America’s colleges and universities.

In this atmosphere, students cannot help wishing to see themselves as members of a persecuted group. Climate activism answers their existential challenges and gives them a sense of crusading purpose in a lonely secular world. The planet, as Bruckner would have it, is the new proletariat. Yet substitute “upper-middle-class” for “planet,” and the progression of victimhood is explained. Global warming allows the upper-middle-class to join the proletariat, cloaking erstwhile oppressors in the mantle of righteous victimhood.

Insight into the quasi-religious motivations that stand behind climate activism cannot finally resolve the empirical controversies at stake in our debate over global warming. Yet understanding climate activism as a cultural phenomenon does yield insight into that debate. The religious character of the climate-change crusade chokes off serious discussion. It stigmatizes reasonable skepticism about climate catastrophism (which is different from questioning the fundamental physics of carbon dioxide’s effect on the atmosphere). Climate apocalypticism drags what ought to be careful consideration of the costs and benefits of various policy options into the fraught world of identity politics. The wish to be oppressed turns into the wish to be morally superior, which turns into the pleasure of silencing alleged oppressors, which turns into its own sort of hatred and oppression.
What do American college students want? I would like to think they are looking for an education in the spirit of classic liberalism, an education that offers them, not a ready-made ideology, but the tools to make an informed choice among the fundamental alternatives in life. The people who run our universities, unfortunately, have taught their students to want something different, and this is what truly oppresses them.

— Stanley Kurtz is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He can be reached at comments.kurtz@nationalreview.com.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

“validity of the public debt….shall not be questioned.”




“validity of the public debt….shall not be questioned.”
Tim Cavanaugh
Executive Editor, Daily Caller

Although President Barack Obama and the establishment media routinely describe a potential federal default as “unprecedented,” the United States government has flaked on its debt service several times, and one expert says the current default has already begun.
The historical default precedents should be of limited comfort to Obama, however. One of the deadbeat presidents was the commander in chief during a disastrous war that saw Washington, D.C. occupied and the White House burned to the ground. The other was Jimmy Carter.

According to Connie Cass of Associated Press, the U.S. government “briefly stiffed some of its creditors on at least two occasions.” The first default took place in November 1814, during the administration of James Madison, America’s tiniest chief executive. Just a few months after the British conquest of Washington, D.C. during the War of 1812, the Treasury was unable to move enough precious metal to service its debt, and missed interest payments on bonds. Boston bondholders, according to Wayne State College history professor Don Hickey, were paid off in short-term interest-bearing treasury notes or more bonds. These debt service troubles, and the war, were resolved within a few months.

A more recent default came in 1979 under President Carter, who, until Obama, held the record for presiding over the country’s longest post-World War II period of economic stagnation. Cass attributes the ’79 default to “a back-office glitch that ended up costing taxpayers billions of dollars.” She writes, “The Treasury Department blamed the mishap on a crush of paperwork partly caused by lawmakers who — this will sound familiar — bickered too long before raising the nation’s debt limit.”

The Carter default is potentially more relevant because it occurred under the 14th Amendment, a post-Civil War change to the constitution that declared the “validity of the public debt….shall not be questioned.”

These precedents for an event the president describes as unexampled in U.S. history are unlikely to get much attention from media that have been eager to ape the administration’s terror-mongering over the debt ceiling increase.  Executive branch efforts to whip up hysteria have gotten wide distribution and arguably caused minor financial panic. 

The Obama administration has energetically promoted an apocalyptic view of the debt ceiling fight, even though default would not automatically result if Congress failed to hike the U.S. borrowing limit.

These efforts may be bringing diminishing returns, however, as hysteria fatigue sets in among a public that has now listened to six years of flop-sweat screaming from Washington Chicken Littles. Americans were assured of a global financial meltdown during the real estate correction of 2007 and 2008. This did not happen, although the government’s “solution” — multi-trillion-dollar bailouts and stimuli, coupled with a quadrupling of the U.S. monetary base — inflicted persistent, low-level, widespread economic agony that has so far stretched over half a decade, with no end in sight.

A new round of threats came at the beginning of this year. The “fiscal cliff” fight was, as its name implied, advertised as an abysmal plunge in America’s economic well-being. The U.S. briefly went over the fiscal cliff, with no ill effects.

This spring, Americans were warned that the sequester — a slight decrease in the rate of growth in government spending — would cause large-scale economic turmoil. This too occurred, without causing any noticeable damage to the already anemic U.S. economy. 

At the end of September, the much-abused American people were again warned of economic Armageddon in the event of a government shutdown. The shutdown is now well into its third week and the economy continues to function.

Even Tuesday’s news that Fitch may downgrade U.S. debt is something we’ve seen before, in January of this year.

One knowledgeable observer even says the default has already occurred. Reuters financial reporter Felix Salmon notes that some large financial firms are moving away from holding U.S. government debt. He argues this is a sign that loss of confidence in Treasury debt has begun to sink America’s economy. This catastrophe too, is more hypothetical than actual.

“The vaseline, in other words, already has sand in it,” Salmon writes. “The global faith in US institutions has already been undermined. The mechanism by which catastrophe would arise has already been set into motion. And as a result, economic growth in both the US and the rest of the world will be lower than it should be. Unemployment will be higher. Social unrest will be more destructive.”

Sound money advocates, including former Texas Rep. Ron Paul, have long argued that inflation itself is a form of default — and specifically that the federal government’s abandonment of the gold standard during the Depression ripped off creditors who got paid in depreciated dollars rather than in specie.

This thesis rarely gets much traction, in large part because creditors remain satisfied with payment in Federal Reserve greenbacks. Still, it is far more plausible than the recent argument that prioritizing debt service over other government spending  is no different than defaulting.

The meme that “prioritization is default by another name” was created in 2011 by Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Neal Wolin. More recently the notion has caught on as a left-wing talking point, and it has been repeated by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew as well as Gene Sperling, director of Obama’s National Economic Council.

Although prioritization is a familiar process to individuals and families who routinely curb spending and tighten budgets in order to avoid missing car, credit card or mortgage payments, neither Lew nor Sperling was laughed at for making this wild claim.

“The administration has been selling this as the first default, and that just ain’t so,” Hickey, the Wayne State professor and author of “The War of 1812: A Forgotten Conflict,” told The Daily Caller.

He pointed out that the 1814 failure, which is widely described as a “technical” default, was in fact a general suspension of interest payments. But it gets little attention — both because the War of 1812, even in the middle of its bicentennial, is largely unknown, and because there is political value in ratcheting up public terror.

“It is in the interest of the party in power and its media allies to cry wolf,” Hickey said. “The more they can persuade the American people that there will be a catastrophe if they don’t get what they want, the more they can get what they want.”

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Socialism sucks!



Socialism sucks!
Mike walker, Col. USMC (retired)

All,

Listened to one too many talking head to remain silent: Socialism sucks!

Webster defines socialism as “any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods” which is in keeping with its nineteenth century philosophical roots.

When the state owns your home and place of work, decides what education you and your children will receive and what goods you will possess, you are not free but a slave of the government.

There is no political freedom without economic freedom.

The new champions of socialism wish to gloss over the truth about their inane economic theory and the new prattle begins with an anachronistic silliness that acts of public good stemmed from socialism.

People have worked for the common good since the dawn of time and the motivations were many.

When free citizens of a small town in New England acted together to build a schoolhouse and hire a teacher, there was no socialist system. They were guided by human goodness and a desire to make a better life, not some political-economic tract that would not be written for another century or so.

Buddhist monks fed and clothed the poor for centuries before socialism.

The Missionaries of Charity, of whom Mother Teresa was a member, serve in accordance to centuries old Christian ideals that have no need of socialist diktats.

Autocratic monarchs claiming to rule by might or right of birth invested in public works, such as the Great Wall of China, long before socialist economic theory was created.

Socialists would have you believe that their theory came first (it just wasn’t written down) and all else followed after. Nonsense.

The next falsehood stems from the anachronistic lie: socialism has exclusive claim to all acts of common good by any government at any time. Elected representation, a judicial system, taxation, government services, etc. are concepts “owned” only by socialists.

Simply put, to have a government is to be a socialist.

This absurdity once again reverses the logic. That all socialist states have a (misguided) form of government is true. That all forms of government are socialist is patently false.

As the historical record and the current world situation demonstrates, there are any number of ways that peoples govern themselves. That socialism is one alternative is true. That socialism can borrow from other models is true. That only socialism gets to lay claim to a beneficial good coming from government is not true. 

Acting in the common good and creating public works is part of the human condition; it is the manifestation of human goodness and a desire to care for our fellow beings – there is no need of socialism.

Now that we have gotten past the deceit and conceit, we can honestly get to the black heart of socialism: the concentration of power and control in the hands of government elites.

We need only look to the sacred socialist canon and the five most destructive words ever penned by man:

“THE DICTATORSHIP OF THE PROLETARIAT”

The breadth of evil that has been spread of across the globe by that mischief created a who’s who of human depravity:

- Lenin and Stalin’s Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that led to the death of millions
- Benito Mussolini’s Fascist Party, formed after World War I out of the nationalist wing of the Italian Socialist Party
- Adolf Hitler’s Nationalist Socialism, by the way, Hitler personally changed the name from the German Workers Party to the Nationalist Socialist German Workers Party
- Mao’s Communist Socialism that led to deaths of millions
- Pol Pot’s Agrarian Socialism that carried out an economic genocide on the Cambodian people
And the list goes on…

Socialism is all about power and control.

Indeed, it can be convincingly argued that beginning in 1917, the violence that shook the world throughout most of the twentieth century should be described as the Wars of Radical Socialism.

Thank God for those pesky free-market democracies because…

Socialism sucks!

Mike

Sunday, October 06, 2013

Iran and the Syria Model



Iran and the Syria Model 
From the Syria debacle, Iran has learned that our threats are empty and posturing as a “moderate” works.

When — not if — is the only mystery about an Iranian nuclear bomb.
All the warning signs are there.

Game Changers’
In 2008, presidential candidate Barack Obama on two occasions went out of his way to warn the Iranians that the development of a nuclear weapon “would be a game-changing situation, not just in the Middle East, but around the world.” Obama later added, “It is unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon; it would be a game changer.”

Strong language. And Obama twice this year again used “game changer” in reference to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, warning him not to dare use chemical weapons. In March, Obama announced to Assad that “the use of chemical weapons is a game changer.” A month later, Obama again warned Assad not to resort to WMD use: “That is going to be a game changer.”

The Iranians must conclude that Obama’s oft-used sports metaphor is more a verbal tic than a serious red line. What should they fear next from Obama — a really, really big game changer? Do we really expect them to convince us that, although they have lied in the past about their WMD aims, they have now renounced them? Or that they have been misunderstood and will prove to the world that they never sought a bomb in the first place?

The Phantom Moderate
Not long ago, Assad was hailed by the American foreign-policy establishment as a “reformer.” Senator John Kerry was widely praised for his visits to Damascus. Kerry’s inspired engagement supposedly stood in stark contrast to the Bush administration’s mindless ostracism of the misunderstood dictator, who was sending terrorists into Iraq, planning the assassination of a prominent politician in Lebanon, aiding Hezbollah, and exploring all sorts of WMD avenues.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gleefully contrasted Assad the “reformer” with the late Moammar Qaddafi, the murderous dictator, when she explained why the Obama administration was going to bomb the latter but not the former, who had only committed “police actions.”

When the murderous Assad appears on Western media, he certainly does not sound like his late, uncouth father. Instead, in smart Western suits, he speaks softly in French-accented English. His chic wife Asma was fawned over in a 2011 Vogue magazine puff piece, “A Rose in the Desert.”
The latest Middle East “moderate” and “reformer,” Hassan Rouhani, the new president of Iran, follows Syria’s script. As in the case of Assad, he appears a pleasant change from his immediate predecessor, the coarse Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Yet, as with the phantom moderate Assad, there is no evidence to support Obama’s assertion before the U.N. that “we are encouraged that President Rouhani received from the Iranian people a mandate to pursue a more moderate course.” There was no free election in Iran. Rouhani has a hardliner background and once enjoyed close ties to the Ayatollah Khomeini. He has bragged about deceiving the Europeans over Iran’s nuclear-enrichment program, and was instrumental in hiding it.

Dear American People
Last month, Russian strongman Vladimir Putin wrote a letter to the American people that was published in the New York Times. It was full of sugar-coated half-truths, charming fantasies, and bald historical distortions — and largely worked in portraying both Russia and Syria as voices of moderation and subject to unfair Western bullying.

Not long after, Rouhani copied that ruse by writing an op-ed for the Washington Post. His piece hit every American therapeutic chord imaginable — from the sappy “identity,” “win-win outcomes,” and “for the sake of their legacies, and our children and future generations” to the overdramatic “Cold War mentality,” “zero sum game,” and “cultural encroachment.” Rouhani sounded part local T-ball coach, part campus-diversity czar, and part peace-studies facilitator.

If it once seemed impossible that Iran could have sanctions weakened, avoid a Western preemptory strike on its nuclear facilities, and obtain WMD, after Syria it suddenly seems likely. The model is now Assad staring down a blinking U.S.

For the Iranians, getting the bomb is now well worth the risk. 

The upside was always undeniable. The West — as in the case of its treatment of North Korea and Pakistan — usually gives more financial aid to rogue proliferators than to nations that play by the rules.

Without nukes, Islamabad and Pyongyang are hardly newsworthy. Neither would earn attention and deference from countries like China, India, Japan, and the United States.
Even better for Iran, its nuclear Sword of Damocles will make life miserable for both its hated enemies the Israelis and its Arab Sunni rivals. The more a nuclear Iranian theocracy sounds unhinged with its apocalyptic and messianic rantings, the better it can protect its terrorist franchises. 

It is old news that for Iran, the long-term advantages of obtaining a nuclear bomb have always outweighed the temporary downside of economic sanctions. But what is new is the Syrian model, which has excited the Iranians as never before. “Game changer” threats are now seen as empty. Posturing as a “moderate” works. Sugary op-eds in American papers beguile the public. And Vladimir Putin is always ready to come to the rescue.

No wonder that Iran believes it can finally have its WMD and woo us, too.